The impact of adverse childhood experiences and social determinants of mental health on adult depression

This study analysed survey data from 34,225 adults in the United States using machine learning models to examine predictors of adult depression. The strongest predictor was living with someone with mental health challenges during childhood. Other predictors of adult depression included sex, total adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) score, loneliness, unemployment and healthcare barriers.

Why is this important?

• Understanding how ACEs and social determinants of mental health predict adult depression may support earlier identification and tailored support.
• Social determinants of mental health are the everyday conditions of life that influence how people feel, think and cope. They can shape mental health outcomes across the lifespan.

What did they do?

• The authors analysed data from the 2023 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (survey data collected and managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) on 34,225 adults in the US.
• They tested several machine learning models using 39 predictors covering ACEs and social determinants of mental health (e.g. sex, loneliness, unemployment).
• Machine learning models are computational algorithms that are trained on datasets to identify relationships, trends, or make predictions.
• Predictors of adult depression were examined for the whole sample and by racial and cultural groups (e.g. White, Black, Asian, Hispanic, First Nations).

What did they find?

• The authors found that the strongest predictor of adult depression was their childhood experience of living with someone who was depressed, suicidal or had mental health challenges.
• Other key predictors of adult depression included being male, a higher total ACE score (0–11), loneliness, unemployment and healthcare barriers.
• Across all racial and cultural groups, living with someone who has mental health challenges, loneliness and sex were consistent predictors. Social and structural factors (e.g. having supported insurance) for Black participants and healthcare use for Hispanic participants had a greater influence on whether they experienced adult depression.

What does this mean for practice?

• Practitioners should be aware that the experience of ACEs and social factors such as loneliness are strong predictors of depression in adults.
• Practitioners can consider exploring how past experiences, such as parental mental health challenges, may impact a client’s current mental wellbeing in a safe, trauma-informed environment.

This summary is one of the child mental health research highlights for April 2026, prepared by the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS).